Rocktails Blog > FT picks out convergence as key 2007 technology trend

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> FT picks out convergence as key 2007 technology trend

Richard Jones, iMagineer-in-Chief // 29 December 2006

In a comment piece today the Financial Times has drawn out three trends for technology in 2007 - all focused on media 'convergence'.

The first is convergence of user generated content (a la YouTube) alongside professional media. The theory being that using the demonstrable pull of user-generated media (especially buzz YouTube clips and other viral phenomenona) attracts more online eyeballs and improves overall site 'stickiness'. That then bolsters exposure for 'mainstream' revenue from a combination of music, video and advertising. It is no secret that the big players are all seeking to develop unique platforms which, let's be honest, cloak and sugar the blatant "sell, sell, sell" message with the cuddliness of social networking.

The real mental block here (you might argue) is that traditional players are still confusing "stuff that pays" with what is now truly 'mainstream' and 'popular' with online users (and often free at the point of use...). At heart, what they understand is the "stuff that pays", typically in its very traditional mould. Same old sales, new distribution channel. That is lazy planning in the long term.

So, more radically, there is the suggestion that mainstream players will begin to licence their IP/brands in a way that allows amateurs to "mash up" their own creations with - say - Disney characters. This builds on the theme we have already seen in music (think the Grey Album by Danger Mouse) and the increasingly commercialised Second Life. ("Reuters? What next, a bleedin' Starbucks every few virtual yards?"). What this is literally asking for, of course, is an absolute amateur sensation that sweeps up major acclaim and which the creator/author then tries to monetise. Who gets the spoils? You can bet the licensing agreements are going to be pretty watertight, so maybe we can expect to see some of the very best examples sidelined into grey markets and/or file sharing?

The FT's second suggested trend is one that is already happening - the ongoing battle to develop and secure online virtual communities by blending web and video game technologies. Second Life, Warcraft and others are already building credible communities - albeit not quite in the same "crash bang wallop" way that YouTube took the globe by storm. It is a fascinating sociological and economic experiment for sure. If we are all supposed to be so feckin' busy in the real world where does a "second life" leave a western society already drenched with web exposure and, with that, f**k all time devoted to the real world anyway? Add in plenty of real money now swapping hands to support "virtual ladder climbing" (plus numerous global cottage industries to support it) and it seems fair to say 2007 will see more of the same. Can't afford that Porsche in real life, why not work towards a virtual equivalent?

There is also a pretty important question: who is 'God' of all this? Who owns it all? Who controls it all, ultimately? If we get to a point where it becomes the norm to run an online life in parallel to real life how long before we get some shock decisions by the creators/managers or - more controversially - by regulatory bodies and governments?

On the creator/manager side we might expect to see some exploitative commercialisation - surely inevitable. This is going to be an interesting psychological test for some. Unlike most basic web browsing experiences an online life is bound to become drug like (what is to love more than life itself?). We may be talking about genuine dependence, addiction and obsession. Is restricting access by hiking up prices akin to virtual murder of the online poor? Gated virtual communities anyone? Who upholds online democracy and fairness? Heavyweight stuff. 2007 will give us some clearer indications but you can't deny it is exciting.

Personally, my real life is royally f**ked up with too much to do and so little time and, to my knowledge, you can't yet buy virtual Jack Daniels. Keep me informed though.

Anyway, went off on a bit of a tangent there... Sweeping up the final trend in the FT article we get back to the old chestnut that is TV and the web. Snug bedfellows, arch enemies, the odd couple, or what? Amongst the biggest players, Apple aim to be at the vanguard with a proposed iTV device to stream video from personal computers to TVs. This should pave the way for more user friendly synchronisation between digital downloads and traditional displays and home lifestyles. With Apple's reputation for streamlined design and elegant implementation they are probably in as good a position as anyone to convince Joe Public. It also fits pretty well with their iTunes / iPod success and the forays they have made with these products into video media.

Not so long ago you would have heard people arguing that TVs would disappear as the web browser took over all media. Frankly, that never made much sense when you actually watch the very different ways in which people - as a matter of preference not just habit - consume web media and TV/DVD/video. In some settings watching a DVD on a laptop or iPod makes some sense. i.e. when you are eight miles high over the Atlantic in a plane. But with your sofa right there in your own place? Get the popcorn on and come and sit down on the sofa... The rapid emergence (and competitive pricing) of plasma and LCD widescreen televisions truly nailed the coffin lid firmly shut on that debate.

Apple will certainly mightily piss off Microsoft (again...) if they make it fly. Microsoft has already made a big play for home media in the form of its Media Centre product that is already a few years old but has not made a massive market impact.

In a separate FT article (published on the same day) there was also speculation about what mega deals might on the horizon next year, with Yahoo! under the microscope as a potential target, and the prospect of eBay extending its reach with other acquisitions or joint ventures. After a year harking back to good old dot com boom irrational exuberance will we see any wobbles in web/tech confidence? With many of the big players now having cracked revenue generation, and looking hungry for more, probably not.