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> The longtail : saviour or distraction for iMagineers?

Richard Jones, iMagineer-in-Chief // 14 January 2007

I've been working on the Rock 'n' Roll iMaginations manifesto and wondering where the longtail theory fits. The orthodoxy on the longtail is well known. As the internet breaks down limitations in storage, distribution and geography it enhances and unleashes the potential of consumer interest outside the mainstream. The longtail of non-mainstream and niche demand outweighs all those Star Wars blockbusters, Barnes & Noble bestsellers and Robbie Williams hit albums every Christmas.

So far so good. A massive (the biggest) market segment really takes flight. The internet plays a key role in revitalising so-called "lesser" information, products and services with all the benefits of a low cost base, instant consumer access and a distribution channel that practically any entrepreneur can get his/her head around (without calling in venture capitalists to fund a store on 5th Avenue).

To infinity ... and beyond

The problem for budding iMagineers is whether you can tap into the longtail in a way that is (note the manifesto must-have) 'scalable'. Now, for sure, the longtail is huge. Billions of dollars. Conquer it, access big (even small?) portions of it, and there is cash to be made. But how to conquer it?

If you are Amazon and are collating inventories of obscure titles - alongside mainstream titles and big brand values - you are accessing more of the pie, creating a one stop solution for customers, moving towards market domination and all that.

What if you are not Amazon? The longtail logic is still telling you that there are niche markets that demand - voraciously - online information, service and products. Indeed, the demand for online service in these areas can be markedly more intense (for which you might read 'loyal', 'interested', 'willing to be sold to') than in the saturated and world weary mainstream. These are customers fed up with being sidelined. Sick of having to put in more effort to find what they want. And passionate about their niche interests. You want this type of person to visit your site and sample your wares. For those of you into Seth Godin's concept of permission marketing, these are great customers to wander into your online life looking to be satiated.

One solution ... many happy punters?

So the longtail customers sound pretty good. But look a bit closer. What they don't have is much convergence. The longtail is fragmented. Painfully so. In the mainstream you can have a site with "news", "celebrities"', "music" and all the typical MOR catch alls and the customer base converges diligently around those tags. In their billions. And they often want pretty much the same thing - allowing neat, standardised and efficient packaging of relevant information / product / service.

Not the longtail. They are a bunch of dropouts and freaks in comparison. Unlike the latest paparazzi shots of Britney Spears you find that Mr Longtail #1 wants to exchange hockey playing cards. Miss Longtail #5742 wants obscure mascara products from Japan. Mr Longtail #905647 wants advice on how to become Miss Longtail #456.

There is money to be made from each of those. Good money too. These are underserved (not undeserved) markets and those that feed them with integrity and enthusiasm will reap rewards. But how scalable is it? Can a new site on hockey playing cards revolutionise your cash flow? Your life?

On balance, the longtail comes out as a distraction on my pros/cons ledger:

Niche => smaller reward per site => reduced potential for scalability => increased number of sites required in web portfolio but reduced competition / easier market access

Generic appeal => higher reward per site => scalability as the essence => one/few ideas required but intense competition / concept must 'dent the universe'

Being blunt : Rock 'n' Roll iMaginations is about brash, creative and disruptive ideas that - knowingly - seek greatness on either a fleeting (quick win, huge reward) or permanent (legendary trailblazers) basis. Those are high stakes. We don't stick to them rigidly. But when push comes to shove that is where our heart truly lies.

Magical alchemy?

I have the nagging feeling this is not the complete picture. More thought and research is (always is) required. In particular, is there a way to bridge the gap between niche and generic? This could be through transition (making the leap from niche to generic, which I guess could capture a "fad" or a "phenomenon"). Or it could be through creating convergence and common platforms that appeal to the longtail. Arguably that is precisely what MySpace does - a technology that brings together mainstream and niche under one roof. A la Amazon but (crucially for iMagineers' perspective on life...) MySpace achieves it through dependence on user-generated content rather than online/physical inventories. That makes a massive difference to what is feasible for self-sufficient entrepreneurs.

In sum : denting the universe, creating a scalable web concept, letting good ideas stand tall on their own two feet, all of these still hold the biggest lure. The manifesto stream of consciousness pulls in that direction. What do you think? I'd welcome views in the freshest air forum.

r.j.

> The long tail : "why the future of business is selling less of more"
> Discuss the longtail phenomenon in the freshest air forum

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